As Ukraine continues its drone campaign, it has reportedly inflicted heavy losses on Russian ammunition supplies, destroying what could amount to three months’ worth of munitions in a single night. This unprecedented attack has reignited discussions about Russia’s nuclear response strategies.
Ukrainian forces, utilizing domestically manufactured drones, targeted key logistics hubs in Russia, including significant strikes at Tikhoretsk in Krasnodar Krai and Toropets in Tver. The Tikhoretsk operation is estimated to have destroyed around 2,000 tonnes of ammunition, while the Toropets strike may have resulted in the explosion of 30,000 tonnes—equivalent to approximately 750,000 shells. This substantial loss is expected to impact Russian military operations in the coming weeks.
The recent successes have not gone unnoticed in Moscow. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Head of Russia’s National Security Council, revealed that President Vladimir Putin has revised Russia’s nuclear response doctrine. According to Medvedev, any significant incursion involving enemy aircraft, missiles, or drones could justify a nuclear response. He warned that aggression from a non-nuclear state like Ukraine, backed by nuclear powers such as the U.S. or the U.K., would be treated as a joint attack.
Despite Ukraine’s historical relinquishment of nuclear arms in 1994, the current conflict positions it uniquely, as it is now supported by multiple nuclear-armed allies. The perception of an escalating nuclear threat from Russia has intensified, with officials acknowledging that previous nuclear warnings have lost their deterrent effect on the West.
Ukraine’s ability to conduct long-range drone strikes highlights the vulnerabilities in Russia’s supply chain. Analysts suggest that the operational security in Russia’s rear areas has deteriorated, allowing Ukraine to capitalize on these weaknesses. Commercial satellite images confirm the extensive damage done to the munitions sites, showcasing a clear lack of protection for critical military resources.
In a further show of strength, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy raised concerns about potential Russian attacks on Ukrainian nuclear infrastructure, indicating that Russian forces may aim to disrupt power supply to nuclear plants. This alarm has been amplified by reports of Russia utilizing Chinese satellites for reconnaissance on these facilities.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian defense ministry has announced ambitious plans to ramp up drone production, with expectations to exceed their initial target of one million units this year. Defense Minister Rustem Umyerov asserted that Ukraine could produce several million drones in the near future, further enhancing its military capabilities.
In response to Ukraine’s escalating drone warfare and Russian military challenges, the European Union has proposed a significant financial aid package. This includes a €35 billion loan aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s defense industry and its ongoing military efforts.
As the conflict unfolds, the potential for a broader military escalation remains a pressing concern, with both sides recalibrating their strategies in light of recent developments.